Keynes as a First Behavioural Economist: A Predecessor to Attribute Substitution Model of Heuristic Judgment?

The present article demonstrates that Keynes’s analysis of inferential judgment and assimilation that was inherent in his theory of fundamental uncertainty is consistent with and historically a predecessor of attribute-substitution accounts of models of heuristic judgment, which are used in modern behavioral economics. This conclusion is important because it associates Keynes’s theory of fundamental uncertainty with contemporary psychology, it explains key ideas of the former in terms of cognitive psychology, and it strengthens the importance of Keynesian psychological concerns for the development of contemporary behavioral economics.

Tags: Uncertainty management, Keynes, Post Keynesian, expectations, behavioural economics, economic methodology, experimental behavior

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